Relatively tight global feed grain supplies mean that, in 2014, UK wheat prices are likely to remain at a historically high level according to a report by the National Association of British and Irish Millers (nabim).
nabim estimated that this year world wheat production will be 712 million tonnes, which is the highest level for 5 years.
This increase is due to increased production in the USA and Russia. However, overall the decline in USA wheat stocks in recent years is a key to the global wheat market. World wheat consumption is forecast to be 704 million tonnes which reflects the continuing demand for wheat, especially in the developing economies of China and India.
For 2014/15 the total global harvest area is forecast to increase 2% (222Mha) but production is tentatively expected to fall by 1% (year on year) to 697 M tonnes, on a return to average yields.
As always the weather will play a major role in price direction. For harvest 2014 the area of wheat planted in the UK is expected to rise 22% to 1.98 million hectares. This a return to normal after the lower level of plantings for harvest 2013 when farmers replaced failed winter crops with different crops or spring wheat varieties.
It is difficult to predict national production but using a 5-year average yield of 7.7t/ha would produce a total of 15.2 million tonnes. This estimate is heavily dependent on growing conditions in the first half of 2014.
Full report http://www.nabim.org.uk/statistics